205 lbs.: Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio Rua
I wasn’t one of those foaming at the mouth with the decision for Lyoto in their last bout. I had it for shogun but it was 3 rounds to 2 and it was close. I feel BJ Penn/Frankie Edgar was a worse judging and that was scarcely mentioned. Shoguns found a majority of his success last match almost solely through his leg kicks; I’d like to think Lyoto will be ready for them this time.
Lyoto’s Karate style is amazing at protecting his head well, but his bow legged stance leaves his legs fairly vulnerable, hopefully he’s had the time to adjust a life time of instinct and positioning to counteract this. If Lyoto can overcome those leg kicks and mount some appreciable offense of his own or lure Shogun into sloppy aggression, then it should be Lyoto’s fight to win; it’s really a tough one to call. Shogun has the power, aggression and technique to put it on Lyoto, he’s likely going to try to be more aggressive, but he needs to have Lyoto hurt before he attempts to swarm him, or he’ll end up much like Thiago Silva- staring up at the lights.
Ultimately, I think Lyoto is the more cerebral of the fighters and will have the better game plan for the second fight.
Prediction: TKO round 3 Lyoto
I think the line should be around ~ -100 for both these guys, but at +160 Shogun is a steal in my opinion.
Main card (Televised):
170 lbs.: Paul Daley vs. Josh Koscheck
I like Daley; he has some real power in his hands and an above average striking game. Daley’s Team Rough House guys have been putting out some quality UK up-and-comers who have oft’ been underrated, so I expect to see a dedicated Daley who shows up at the proper weight (unlike his last fight) and ready to get it on, I just don’t expect it will help him much.
Koshchek is not only more athletically gifted, he’s also much more experienced - His extensive wrestling pedigree, his new found adeptness at striking, he’s just a more complete fighter than Daley. Koschek would most likely be 2-3 in most Welter Weights Top 10 lists if not for his TKO loss to Paulo Thiago, a match he was winning prior to the blow. Many didn’t give him much of a chance against top prospect Anthony Johnson, a fight he dominated. My only fear is that Koscheck gets a big dick in this fight and tries to stand with Daley, I believe Koscheck can win this way, but that is also how he loses this fight.
Either way, this is Koschecks fight to win or lose, and I trust to his experience that he won’t get lured into a slug fest.
Prediction: TKO Koshcheck round 2
At -220 I still feel like there is a tiny bit of value on Koscheck but not much, conversely, I think if Daley gets much past the +200 limit he’s at now he may be worth a bit of ‘punchers chance’ money as I don’t think an upset is that farfetched.
265 lbs.: Kevin Ferguson vs. Matt Mitrione
This is just an odd fight as neither of these guys are UFC quality competitors, but it’s nice that UFC is treating Kimbo like a regular fighter instead of dragging in big, past their prime, names for him to beat on.
Mitrione was the Juney Browning of last season, not nearly as prolific perhaps, but he occupied the same role; hated by viewers and house/teammates alike; his upset of the beloved Marcus “Big Baby’ Jones, on the finale, definitely helped cement his heel status. He seems to keep beating the odds, but mostly through his opponent’s folly rather than through his own grit or skill set. He does have the size and the physical tools to win this fight; he just seems to be bad at training, and bad at following a game plan.
I think it’s finally time to admit that Kimbo has gotten better. He’s developed a rudimentary ground game; he’s flushed out his striking bit, he seems to have a bit more in the old gas tank. Realistically, he is never going to be a world beater, but he still can rise to beat a guy like Mitrione. I don’t know how much ATT has developed his ground game, but I don’t think it will ever be his bread and butter, and Kimbo ever remains a hard man to train, so I expect to see the jab-jab-unnecessary-head-duck-overhand-right combo that Kimbo seems to favour.
If Duke Rufous manages to imprint a game plan into the frustratingly contrary Mitrione and he can use his unorthodox striking (read: sloppy but surprising), if he can work in some leg kicks, and use his reach to create distance, if he can probably drag this into the 2nd or 3rd round where, let’s face it, Kimbo will be gasping like a fish out of water, if he can take Kimbo down at and use his weight advantage. If he can manage these things, he can take this, but that’s a lot of ‘ifs’.
Prediction: Kimbo TKO round 1
With both these guys at -115 I don’t really like either of them. There’s too little certainty.
155 lbs.: Jeremy Stephens vs. Sam Stout
Jeremy Stephens has a flushed out game. He’s the modern MMA fighter, He can triangle choke KO, and wrestle; he’s not bad at anything, unfortunately he’s just not that great at anything. He’s not going to beat Stout on his feet, but if he can manage to hurt stout on the feet and get him down to a compromising position on the ground, that’s how I see him wining this. Stephen’s KO of the year runner-up against Rafael Dos Anjos has given some the impression he’s got some real power in his hands, but when you need to pick an upper cut off the floor and take two steps to generate said power, it sort of makes it unusable; No way Stout falls victim to Stephens sloppy 1-shots.
Sam Stout looked great in his last fight versus Lauzon, he seems to be coming into his own after a rough couple of fights in 08. He throws great combinations, changes levels and covers distance well; he’s not great on the ground but it isn’t a glaring weakness either. Sam’s often difficult to take down and punishes those who try unless they manage to set it up well with strikes and/or have a quality double leg.
This may earn Sam/Stephens another FOTN as it may go the distance, and it’s bound to be a slug fest, but I see Stephens getting the worst of it as he lacks the kick boxing prowess or momentum Stout has right now.
TKO 2nd round Stout.
At -200 Stout/+160 Stephens seems about right, this line feels ‘on’ I don’t see much value on either. Maybe a small bet on Stout but that’s probably just nationalism speaking.
185 lbs.: Alan Belcher vs. Patrick Cote
Another FOTN candidate as both these guys tend to throw, especially Belcher who oft’ ends up throwing from his hips by round 3. Patrick should be the favourite here, he was on a roll prior to his knee injury against AS.
It’s hard to say what that lay off has done to him, that’s a very big variable, but the 08 Cote was on a 6 fight win streak against some of the ‘better’ guys in the division. He’s more than solid on his feet and has great usable power, he just has a grown up game, which I don’t think will fall to Belchers usual antics. Also, it’s probably good to point out that he’s never been beaten on his feet. If the 08 Cote shows up, it’s going to be a bad night for Belcher who’s going to be on the gloved end of a lot of stiff jabs.
Belcher has a great ground game and uses his, surprisingly effective striking to set it up. He can handle the fight no matter where it goes and has a marked advantage over Cote on the ground. He does have a weakness versus good solid strikers, and tends to resort to brawling; Cote should make short work of him if he goes into this mode.
Prediction: Cote by KO round 2
Cote has a great team, and I think they’ll ensure he comes in with limited ring rust. The Predator at +105 seems like a gift to me, but I wouldn’t bet the house on it. It’s almost as if everyone forgot who Cote was and assumes Belcher can land off-the-cage-superman punches at will.
Under card (May not be broadcast):
170 lbs.: Marcus Davis vs. Jonathan Goulet
Both these guys are such disappointments to me. It’s hard to even read their names without shaking my head sadly and walking down to the closest pond to skip rocks.
Goulet is great, he should be an asset named high amongst Canada’s Top mma athletes; he’s got a versatile striking and ground game, he’s got an awesome high light reel; foot, knee and fist KO’s, towel throw-in’s, and he fucking bulldog choked Shoni Carter in 05. However, he is simply unable to take a punch or keep his composure against competent fighters. He holds the unofficial and unenviable KO record for being flattened in 5 seconds by Duane Ludwig.
Marcus Davis was looking real good; he had some solid KO’s against, well, nobodies; but he weathered both the brawling Pauls from the UK, but couldn’t quite get it done against Dan Hardy, then an up and coming Ben Saunders decimated him with knees and made it look easy. Despite his boxing background his MMA boxing has looked passable at best lately; his BJJ is actually his better weapon, if a bit blunted by his lack of a top game. Let’s face it at 36; he’s not getting any younger.
Marcus still probably has what it takes on the feet to take this. I call it even on the ground unless one of them is stunned from a blow. Marcus does still have some crispness and composure to his stand up to weather Goulet’s speed and level combinations. If it somehow does hit the ground I see Marcus doing the finishing, as Goulet often forgets how to defend arm bars after getting punched in the face.
I really hope Goulet surprises me here as I’ve always been a fan, but even money has Marcus taking this.
Prediction: Marcus: KO Round 1
265 lbs.: Joey Beltran vs. Tim Hague
Ugh. Joey Beltran, you may remember, was in that abomination of a fight with Rolles Gracie at 109, where Gracie was winning the fight and then gassed 2 minutes into round 1. It was one of those fights where no one really wins, we watched in head-shaking dismay as two large out of shape men, gasped and pawed at each other; it was sloppier than a retards picnic. Joey went on to beat Houston Alexander after that fight, I’m not sure how, though he does seem to have a decent resiliency at least.
Tim Hague isn’t Canada’s finest asset he was involved in the ‘official’ fastest UFC KO being flattened by Todd Duffee in 7 seconds of the first round. Sigh, Go Canada. He was straight robbed in his fight with Tuchscherer, though the fact he even went to 3 semi-close rounds with Chris Tuchschereris is probably a bad sign; Chris is the type of guy the UFC stable to trot out when they want to give a waning Gonzaga a W.
Tim still has this though, he’s a true heavy weight, whereas Joey is just sort of doughy. I dare say that Beltran may even offer a chance for Tim to look like a world beater after Beltran inevitably gases and Tim has his way with him.
Prediction: Tim KO round 3
170 lbs.: T.J. Grant vs. Johny Hendricks
This is an awesome match and I really hope we get to see it. Both these guys are top tier and a decisive win, from either of them here, puts them in the mix at the top of the WW division.
Halifax’s TJ Grant has been thrown to the dogs in his initial UFC fights; he spoiled UFC’s fun by upsetting Ryo Chonnan, and then lost a close decision to the Korean Stun Gun, Dong Hyun Kim. Coming off a round one KO of the night over Kevin Burns he’s finally getting some recognition, he’s got amazing ground skills, and throws with confidence and power on his feet.
Johnny Hendricks, a NCAA Div 1 champion wrestler, is undefeated in his mma career. He got fairly lucky with his awful stoppage of Sadollah, but was still winning the fight prior to it. Hendricks swarms well, is good with subs, and is obviously a decorated wrestler. He has the advantage of dictating where the fight happens and is probably TJ grants match on the feet.
These guys are both tough to stop and I see this going to decision, I’m leaning towards Hendricks just because he should be able to use his superior wrestling to retain top control. I really hope I’m wrong and TJ pulls this off though.
Prediction: Hendricks: Decision
185 lbs.: Joe Doerksen vs. Tom Lawlor
I’m a fan of Tom Lawlor, I thought he was robbed in his split decision loss to Simpson. He’s a resilient, surprising guy who seems to be getting better with each fight, but often has a pretty miserable gas tank, partly due to his frantic pace.
Joe Doerksen has been getting some success in Sengokou and KOTC; I watched his last fight in KOTC and his skills do still seem pretty sharp. He just seems like he can’t hack it with the big dogs anymore.
I think Tom can put in on him here, but only if he comes with a gas tank, Joe is wily and probably won’t fall for his early shenanigans. Tom needs to keep the pressure on to find success here, applying pressure seems to be his forte so I think he should end up with the W.
Prediction: Tom Lawlor TKO Round 2
170 lbs.: Mike Guymon vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida
Mike is great for KOTC, he beats middling talent that the KOTC has to offer, and has a decent bag of tricks.
Yoshida has fought top competition and looked solid, although he certainly doesn’t like getting punched in face. He’s the best Judo practitioner in the UFC with the departure of Karo, I have a a soft spot for Judoka's and I’m really pulling for Yoshida here, I think he submits Mike with out to much fuss.
Prediction: Yoshida Sub First round.
185 lbs.: Jason Macdonald vs. John Salter*
It’s a shame that Loiseau wasn’t able to fight, but it warms my cockles to see Jmac getting another shot in the UFC. Salter has a decent wrestling background, I’m sure he’s game, but he really shouldn’t pose much threat to Jmac who’s fought a lot of the top MW talent in the world. This should be a good opportunity for Jmac to put on a clinic and ensure some further UFC outings.
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