Georges St-Pierre 5' 11" (180 cm) 170 19-2-0 VS Dan Hardy 6' 0" (183 cm) 170 23-6-0, 1 NC
Pretty obvious one here; Hardy shouldn’t be fighting GSP, if it wasn’t that he helps capture a UK demographic then he wouldn’t be.
It’s really more about marketing, and the dropping stock on their other UK Star, Bisping, than it is about him deserving a shot.
GSP has him on all fronts here.
Thaigo Alves is a better striker, stronger and is better on the ground (if only in getting up) than Hardy and his match with GSP was about as lopsided as a match can get without someone dying.
The only discernable advantage Hardy has is a longer reach than the fairly short-armed Alves (GSP still has a 2” reach advantage over Hardy though) and possibly being underestimated, although, after the Serra lesson, I don’t see GSP getting a big dick and taking a lot of unnecessary risks.
Hardy’s ‘advantages’ are thin at best, so it really comes down to punchers chance, which, really, is the same chance I have against GSP.
GSP- TKO - Round 2
Frank Mir 6' 3" (191 cm) 240 13-4-0 VS Shane Carwin 6' 5" (196 cm) 265 11-0-0
I’m my opinion, the most interesting fight on the card, and also one of the hardest ones for me to call.
Carwin seems to have heavier hands than Brock, he simply puts guys down and has a smattering of KO’s, on his 11-0 record, that are a testament to that.
In some ways he presents more problems for Mir than Brock does; Mir has to really play a bit more defensive on the feet, while still worrying about getting taken down.
That being said, I do think Mir has much better hands than Carwin and does win this fight on the feet, if he can keep it there. That maybe a big if.
With so many variables and questions, I think it comes down to previous competition; Mir boasts a fightfinder full of the ‘who’s-who’ of the heavy weight division while Carwin just has a fightfinder full of ‘who?’s’.
For me that does it:
I think Mir hurts Carwin with a combination and puts him away with a Guillotine or just good ol’ frantic GnP (‘1-for-you, 2-for-the-Matt’ style)
Ben Saunders 6' 3" (191 cm) 170 8-1-2 VS Jake Ellenberger 6' 0" (183 cm)
Jake was supposed to be Martin Kampmann, well guess what, he’s not. Ellenberger is resilient and he’s fought top competition in Jay Herion and, more recently, Carlos Condit, unfortunately he lost both those fights.
Ben has seemed better each time he’s fought, I think Ben finishes this fight, and I really hope it’s via knees-in-bunches, but it could really be anything.
Ben TKO Round 1
170 22-5-0 Jon Fitch 6' 0" (183 cm) 170 24-3-0, 1 NC VS Thiago Alves 5' 9" (175 cm)
Great fight, decides who really is the 2nd best in the WW division. Fitch has a win over Alves, but it was via a random upkick and was against a ‘different Alves’.
Jon really gets things done on the ground, and seeing how much trouble GSP had at keeping Alves down, I worry about Fitch’s ability to ‘dictate’ this fight.
If Alves doesn’t fear Fitch taking him down, then I think he will soon become a handful for Jon on the feet as he really starts working his kicks and knees.
I think there will be a round of feeling out; if Alves starts to feel comfortable about not being taken down it’s going to be a long night for Mr. Fitch.
Alves - Decision
170 22-5-0 Jim Miller 5' 8" (173 cm) 155 16-2-0 VS Mark Bocek 5' 8" (173 cm) 155 8-2-0
It’d be nice to see Bocek get this done, but Nationalism aside, I think Jim’s wrestling will make the difference here.
I do however, think that Bocek is undervalued at +310, and seems like there’s a good deal of value there.
I think this may end up being a decision.
The biggest question with this fight is why it’s even on the main card.
Obviously they’ve put their best foot forward with Spike portion of card, but I’d still rather have Pelligrino/Camoes or anything involving Rousimar Palhares from the preliminaries.
Nate Diaz 6' 0" (183 cm) 155 11-5-0 VS Rory Markham 5' 11" (180 cm)
Should be a dynamic fight if nothing else; expect to see awful looking boxing and see Rory lose if it goes to the ground at all- Which it probably won’t since the Diaz brothers seem to be infatuated with their newly found ‘Udon Noodle boxing’ rather than flexing their, rather considerable, Gracie taught BJJ skills.
I think with Nates durability and overall adroitness he gets this done somehow, hopefully a return to form with a no-hands and two-fingers triangle like the kind we saw him use on Pelligrino.
That being said Rory Markham at +225 still seems decent, the guy has power in his hands and people often forget that Nate ≠ Nick; that line seems off to me.
170 16-5-0 Ricardo Almeida 6' 0" (183 cm) 185 11-3-0 VS Matt Brown 6' 0" (183 cm) 170 13-7-0
I fear for ‘Big Dog’ here; but prior to being toppled by Cote, he was close to being a number one contender in the MW division. He’s just a hard guy to feel confident in, especially against a contender like Brown, as Almedia has a really big problem pulling-the-trigger.
Brown has been on the rise, and as much as I hated him, at +125 I think he’s good money.
I see a decision from this brawl, and I’m going to say Ricardo, but really, it’s a coin flip for me.
Kurt Pellegrino 5' 8" (173 cm) 155 20-4-0 Fabricio Camoes 5' 10" (178 cm) 155 10-4-1
This should be a great fight, I see Pelligrinno on top at the end but it’s could really end anywhere.
Neither of these guys finish easily and they both are pretty good at putting people away.
Despite his BJJ acumen, Kurt can be a bit sloppy on the ground and this could earn him an L against Camoes fairly quickly.
Rodney Wallace 5' 9" (175 cm) 205 9-1-0 VS Jared Hamman 6' 3" (191 cm) 205 11-2-0
I’m going to say Rodney Wallace gets this fight, but in all honestly, unless Hamman gets his monkey head punched out, 20 seconds in again, I don’t even really care to see it.
Rousimar Palhares 5' 8" (173 cm) 185 19-2-0 VS Tomasz Drwal 6' 0" (183 cm) 185 17-2-0
Rousimar and Drwal shouldn’t be relegated to this garbage slot. Rousimar hasn’t lost to anyone in years except for his decision loss to Henderson.
Drwal hasn’t fought the same level of competition recently, but his only recent loss comes via KO by recently number one seeded Thaigo Silva.
What Rousimar lacks in forehead he makes up for in entertainment, this guy snaps on heel hook and drops wheel kicks like no other.
I really hope Rousimar gets this done in spectacular fashion, maybe another heel hook or knee bar against a decent opponent will get the UFC brass to start giving this guy main cards again.
Matthew Riddle 6' 1" (185 cm) 170 3-1-0 VS Greg Soto 5' 11" (180 cm) 170 7-0-0
It’s Soto’s debut and I know almost nothing about him; Riddle is TUF alumni which leads me to think they’re trying to get him a win.
With no actual career finishes and his humiliating loss on the TUF Finale, I’d bet Riddle gets a big dick and really tries to take it to Soto, which very will might get Riddle subbed.
Soto comes from Pelligrino’s camp and has some good solid sub finishes under his belt, I’d like to see him come in and upset the odds, and I don’t think it will be all that hard for him to make that a reality.
