This is poor use of Maia, I admit he was probably one of the best choices at the time after Vitor fell off, but he’s going to lose this fight and it’s going to ‘tarnish’ his star. I’d argue Chael Sonnen would have been a better choice, but he hadn’t had his surprising win against Marquardt at the time of this announcement. As stated, Maia loses this fight, probably spectacularly. That said, if it somehow ends on the ground I think Maia has the tools to end it, but he lacks the required wrestling or double leg to get Anderson down, and his usual pulling guard is simply going to end badly for him.
This is similar to the Thales situation; there’s a perceived weakness of Anderson Silva to strong BJ practitioners, or at least to flying Scissor heel hooks, however (accurate this may be, very few of the elite in BJJ have the wrestling acumen to implement this game plan.
I expect that DM may get a big dick with his new found striking ability after his dismantling of Dan Miller, if he does, it will be a short night for him, and perhaps that’s best for all involved.
KO Anderson Silva 2nd round.
At +450 DM seems like he might be worth a small bet, if only to spice this up.
Lightweight Championship bout: B.J. Penn (c) vs. Frankie Edgar
Poor Frankie.
I just don’t see how he can win this, his wrestling is solid, BJ’s TD defense is inhuman.
Frankie’s boxing is above average; BJ’s hands are probably top 3 in MMA and he has never been knocked out.
He doesn’t have a size advantage, something most of BJ’s recent opponents enjoyed (perhaps ‘enjoyed’ is the wrong word).
Essentially Frankie is Rudy, and I’m pretty sure they’re going to carry him off the field.
Frankie is going to try to box with BJ when he starts getting the worst of it, which he will, he’s going to try to shoot for double legs, he’s not going to land them; from their it gets worse for him.
3rd round KO BJ
I feel like there’s value at -700 for BJ.
Welterweight bout: Matt Hughes vs. Renzo Gracie
This is an exhibition, but without the class of being referred to as one officially.
Renzo’s last fight was three years ago, a fight he won by dq from getting his face kneed repeatedly by Frank Shamrock while he laid on the ground, this might again be his key to victory.
Matt Hughes has severely faded in last few years, but he can still be trotted out to beat the previous year’s TUF quarter finalists, but a fight with Frank Lester or Demarques Johnson is sort of an ill-fitting fight for one of UFC’s brightest stars, so we’re relegated to this.
While Renzo has certainly fought the who’s-who in the Pride hay-day, he lost nearly every high profile fight and he’s fighting a strong, dominant ground fighter in Hughes who has considerable, and oft’ forgotten, BJJ chops. He’d have to soften Hughes up considerably in order to tap him, and I just don’t seeing him having the necessary tools to do this at 43, especially when he didn’t have them at 33.
A relatively one-sided and sloppy GnP TKO from Hughes in the second round seems about right.
This line doesn’t seem appealing.
Lightweight bout: Terry Etim vs. Rafael dos Anjos
Every time I see Rafael’s name I can only picture the KO of the year, where Jeremy Stephens quite nearly took his head off with a telegraphed uppercut that looked more like a he was bowling then boxing.
Etim, on the other hand, has finished some solid names in the LW division on the feet as well as on the ground.
This will be a competitive fight but I see Etim ending up with a decision.
I’m really unsure why this is on the Main card.
The line looks pretty much dead on where it should be, not ‘much’ value in it imo.
Middleweight bout: Kendall Grove vs. Mark Munoz
Mark Munoz was somewhat tarnished when Hamill flattened him last year with that uncharacteristically accurate head kick. Mark’s got some real wrestling pedigree and with that some usable brute strength and endurance, which I think he’ll use it to bully the lankier Grove around.
Kendall on the other hand is a lousy, smirking, piece of shit, who’s usual main key to victory is fighting green or washed ut opponents who happen to blunder into telegraphed triangles. So providing Munoz doesn’t paste his arm to his ear and shove them into Groves spaghetti-pile of legs for the two and a half minutes it takes Grove to remember how to execute a proper triangle, then we shouldn’t have to put up with that awkwardly-long opponent-burying pantomime victory that even Tito had the good sense to stop doing 5 years ago.
2nd round TKO Munoz
It pains me to be this objective, but Grove may not be terrible at +130, though personally, making some side cash selling dime bags from my BMX would seem like a cleaner source of revenue.
Preliminary Card
Light Heavyweight bout: Alexander Gustafsson vs. Phil Davis
Good match up; Gustofsson has been straight mercing people, so this should be a somewhat tough test for Davis. Davis just has the bigger tool box here, he can handle himself on the feet, his athleticism and his top notch BJJ and wrestling skills will make the difference. I think Davis finishes this on the ground.
First round TKO Davis
Not a lot of value here as far as lines go, maybe a bit at +450 for Gustafsson for punchers chance, but, I really don’t think he gets it done here.
Lightweight bout: Paul Taylor vs. John Gunderson
Probably a nice little scrap from these guys, Paul seems to only be able to get into terrible brawls, and if it goes to the ground for extended time I see Gunderson subbing him.
Gunderson Kimura round 1
Welterweight bout: Nick Osipczak vs. Rick Story
I really like Nick, he was great on the show and showed real promise, but I think he’s being tossed to the dogs a bit with Story. Story Gets it done on the feet and on the ground and I think he overwhelms Nick here. It’s hard to say how far Nick has come since the show, but unless he’s been doing some Rocky Montages, I just don’t think he’s going to have much for Story here, who shouldn’t have any problem taking Osipczak down at will and dictating the fight.
Story decision
Welterweight bout: DaMarques Johnson vs. Brad Blackburn
DaMarques isn’t ready for this, but I enjoy watching him get face punched, so I don’t mind. DaMarques can barely throw combinations of one and he hasn’t shown any real deftness on getting fights to the floor. Conversely, Blackburn isn’t an easy guy to get down; being an ex pro boxer, he throws solid combinations and works the jab and follows up. I think Brad takes this after a round of DaMarques walking into stiff jabs as he attempts to reload his 1 punch combinations.
Brad Blackburn round 2 TKO
Lightweight bout: Paul Kelly vs. Matt Veach
I’m not a Paul Kelly fan, much like Paul Taylor, he’s a brawler; he really gets it done in close with dirty boxing with mixed flurries of sloppy looking triple-hook combinations. Matt Veach looked amazing versus Frankie Edgar as a last minute replacement, it was a close fight ‘til Edgars slightly crisper boxing landed him an overhand right that led to a dazed Veach getting choked. We’re not going to see that sort of crisp boxing from Kelly, nothing Kelly does is crisp, I expect him to be out worked, slammed, and generally brutalized for 3 rounds. Kelly’s durability will probably rob Veach of a stoppage and this will go the full 3.
Veach decision.
Heavyweight bout: Jon Madsen vs. Mostapha Al-turk
I think this fight was made to make Mostapha look good. John Madsen does have some collegiate wrestling background that he may employ to some success, but I saw little sign of it from him on the TUF, and he got dispatched via KO by Schaub. I still expect Madsen to try to work his stand up with Al-turk and Al just has the experience, size and reach to put batter this one out.
Mostapha TKO 1st round.
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